Sample analysis · open data · SQL

Immunization coverage & child survival in Nigeria

Four decades of national vaccination coverage set against newborn survival, and a 2018 look at which states are home to the most unreached children. The figures were rebuilt from raw WHO/UNICEF and UN IGME files, cleaned and computed in SQL.

Data: WHO/UNICEF national immunization coverage estimates and subnational coverage data (CC BY 3.0 IGO); UN IGME child mortality estimates. National figures are modelled estimates; the 2018 subnational figures are administrative reports with known quality limits, handled below.

67%

DTP3 coverage in 2024, against a 90%+ goal

57%

Measles (MCV1) coverage in 2024

−21.2%

Neonatal mortality since 1990 (49.5 to 39.0 per 1,000 births)

1.45M

Children who missed the measles dose, 2018 (districts with usable data)

Coverage rose in fits and starts; newborn deaths fell more slowly

Vaccination coverage roughly doubled since the 1980s but stalled and even reversed around 2000 before recovering, and it still sits short of the 90% mark. Neonatal mortality dropped about a fifth over the same period. The two move together; this is association, not proof that one caused the other.

DTP3 coverage Measles coverage Neonatal mortality (right axis)

29%

of the 2018 district records for measles (225 of 774) logged more doses given than there were eligible children, which cannot be true. They were removed before any state figure was calculated, so the state map and ranking below rest only on records that pass a basic sanity check.

Measles coverage is lowest across the north-west and south-south

2018 measles coverage by state, rebuilt from district reports. The cold spots cluster, they are not scattered randomly, which is what makes geographic targeting possible.

A coverage rate doesn't tell you where the missed children are

The ten states with the most children missing the measles dose in 2018. Bar length is the number of children; colour is the state's own coverage rate. Populous states like Kano and Lagos sit near the national average yet carry the largest absolute gaps, which is where outreach money goes furthest.

80%+ coverage 65–80% below 65%

How the numbers were built, and what they can't show

The national series come from WHO/UNICEF coverage estimates and UN IGME mortality estimates. The 2018 state figures were rebuilt from district-level reports: the raw files were loaded into DuckDB, screened for impossible and missing values, and then coverage was aggregated by summing doses and eligible population per state (a population-weighted rate, not a plain average across districts of differing size). The full set of SQL queries, and the records that were thrown out, are in the methodology writeup.

The limits are worth being clear about. The national trend is country-wide while the state view is a single year, so the two are different lenses, not one continuous picture. Coverage moving with mortality is an association; many things drive child survival. And the administrative data is rough: beyond the 29% of measles records that were impossible, the polio figures were inconsistent enough (third-dose counts exceeding first-dose in most states) that a drop-off indicator could not be calculated honestly, so it was left out rather than shown.